Just a Fad?

Hear it all the time -- from colleagues near and far -- that Twitter thing won't last. Can't monitize it, therefore, it's not worth the effort.

Hmm. Sounds like another on-line company, privately held, flash in the pan. Yeah, that Facebook thing, that'll never catch on.

I will grant this -- Twitter may fly away under the Fail Whale, and the nay-sayers are absolutely waiting for things like this week's Nielsen notes that for the first time in a year, Twitter adoption was flat.

Look at the numbers in the numbers: top usage group for Twitter in February numbers, 35-49. And not close, 41.9% in that demo; next is the 25-34 at 19.1%. I'm no math major, but that's double the nearest demo. Kids? Not so much a factor.

Mobile adults. Those reaching the prime spending (and giving) age. Looking to keep up with a mobile world. Yes, that's the other key demo.

Twitter quitters remain an important factor, and feed the this won't last mindset. The drops of April and May appear to be coming back, either with new members or renewals. Either way, the content continues to improve, and that's likely a major factor in the last spike.

There is the small matter of Twitter's growth -- 1,448% from May to May -- and that's very significant, dare I say Facebook-like expansion. In this relm, 18.2 million registered really isn't that big (remember FB and MySpace continue in the triple digits).

Here's the bigger number: time spent on Twitter has grown 177% from year to year, from only a little more than six minutes last year to over 17 minutes this year. Why? More content to read. At 140 characters (if that many) per post. Diversity is what I believe drives the growth. Only so much to read when its two or three feeds; now with BreakingNews plus the usual media suspects, Twitter becomes that easy one-stop portal for information. A mobile fulfillment of that oh-so-1990s dream of the "customized front page" that those internets would bring.

This is where I see the power of the medium, not necessarily the application. It's still kludgy, and lacking the finished nature of an iTunes interface. Reminds me of the big old white Motorola cell phone I once packed back in the big hair days. Functional, but not mass market.

The name may change, but this "fad" is not leaving anytime soon.